2017-2018 Predictions

My predictions for this year.

First off 10 random predictions. We'll check back to see how I did last year later.

1. JVR will have more goals and points than Marleau (void if there is a greater than 10% difference in GP)
2. Carey Price will be below 3rd in Sv%, GAA, and wins, but still be at least a finalist for vezina
3. Tavares will be below 10th in the league in scoring
4. Nylander will have more points than Marner (void if there is a greater than 10% difference in GP)
5. Dallas will win their division
6. Holtby will be top 5 in at least 2/3 of Sv%, GAA, and wins and people will still say he is the problem in Washington (note the second half can't be quantified and isn't actually part of the prediction)
7. Lucic will have less than 25 goals and 50 points. People will still say he is essential to Edmonton's success. (note the second half can't be quantified and isn't actually part of the prediction)
8. Nicklas Backstrom will again be top 5 in points, he will get no significant Hart consideration (note the second half can't be quantified and isn't actually part of the prediction).
9. Ehlers will crack 70 points, but everyone will only talk about Scheifele and Laine (note the second half can't be quantified and isn't actually part of the prediction).
10. Pacioretti will get 30+ goal for the nth season in a row, people will still blame him for the habs failings (note the second half can't be quantified and isn't actually part of the prediction).

Regular season predictions

BOLD UNDERLINED IN PLAYOFFS

Atlantic

1. Lightning
2. Leafs
3. Panthers
4. Senators
5. Canadiens
6. Bruins
7. Sabres
8. Red Wings

Metropolitan

1. Capitals
2. Blue Jackets
3. Penguins
4. Flyers
5. Rangers
6. Hurricaines
7. Islanders
8. Devils

Pacific

1. Oilers
2. Ducks
3. Flames
4. Sharks
5. Kings
6. Coyotes
7. Canucks

Central

1. Stars
2. Predators
3. Wild
4. Blackhawks
5. Blues
6. Jets
7. Golden Knights
8. Avalanche

Playoffs

Round 1

Capitals over Rangers

Lightning over Flyers

Leafs over Panthers

Penguins over Blue Jackets

Stars over Blues

Blackhawks over Oilers

Flames over Ducks

Predators over Wild

Round 2

Capitals over Penguins (they finally do it)

Lightning over Leafs

Stars over Predators

Blackhawks over Flames

Round 3

Capitals over Lightning

Stars over Blackhawks

Stanley Cup

Stars over Capitals

Sorry its one day late

2016-2017 Standing Predictions

Atlantic

Tampa Bay
Florida
Montreal
-----------
Detroit
Toronto
Boston
Ottawa
Buffalo

Metropolitan
Washington
Pittsburgh
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia
---------------
New Jersey
Carolina
Columbus

Round 1
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Florida over Montreal
Washington over Rangers
Pittsburgh over Islanders

Round 2
Tampa over Florida
Washington over Pittsburgh

Round 3
Tampa Bay over Washington

Pacific
LA
San Jose
Anaheim
---------
Phoenix
Calgary
Edmonton
Vancouver

Central
Dallas
St Louis
Chicago
Nashville
Winnipeg
----------
Colorado
Minnesota

Round 1
Nashville over LA
San Jose over Anaheim
Dallas over Winnipeg
St Louis over Chicago

Round 2
Nashville over San Jose
Dallas over St Louis

Round 3
Dallas over Nashville

Stanley Cup
Tampa Bay over Dallas

Trophy Prediction 2015-2016

Hart
Winner: Crosby
Runner ups: Getzlaf, Seguin
Dark Horse: Giordano

Norris
Winner: Hedman
Runner ups: Giordano, Karlsson
Dark Horse: Shattenkirk

The Connor McDavid Calder
Winner: McDavid
Runner ups: Eichel, Domi
Dark Horse: Panarin

Selke
Winner: Kopitar
Runner ups: Toews, Bergeron
Dark Horse: R'OR

Art Ross
Winner: Crosby
Runner ups: Kessel, Seguin
Dark Horse: Backstrom

Vezina
Winner: Holtby
Runner ups: Price, Rask
Dark Horse: Schneider

2015-2016 Predictions

Eastern Conference

Atlantic
Tampa Bay Lightning
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
--------------------------------------------
Ottawa Senators
Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Buffalo Sabers
Toronto Maple Leafs

Metropolitan
Pittsburgh Penguins
New York Rangers
Washington Capitals
New York Islanders
Columbus Blue Jackets
-----------------------------------------------
Philadelphia Flyers
New Jersey Devils
Carolina Hurricanes

(Note I think the Leafs will be ahead of both NJD and Car FWIW)

Round 1
TB over CBJ
Mon over Det

Pitts over NYI
Wsh over NYR (finally)

Round 2
TB over Mon (again)

Wsh over Pitts

Round 3
Wsh over TB

Western Conference

Central
St Louis Blues
Chicago Blackhawks
Dallas Stars
Minnesota Wild
Colorado Avalanche
---------------------------------------------------
Nashville Predators
Winnipeg Jets

Pacific
Anaheim Ducks
LA Kings
Calgary Flames
----------------------------------------------------
San Jose Sharks
Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Arizona Coyotes

Round 1
Blues over Col
Dallas over Chi

Anaheim over Minni
LAK over Cgy

Round 2
Dallas over Blues
Ana over LAK

Round 3
Ana over Dallas

STANLEY CUP FINAL
Washington over Anaheim

10 Random Predictions 2015-2016

First off how did I do last year

1) Jonathan Quick is a good goalie, but an overrated one.  He will not be in the top 10 goaltenders by save percentage (for goaltenders with greater than 35 GP).
TRUE (19th)

2) Thornton will be within the top 30 in points (but remember San Jose's failure to succeed in the playoffs is all his fault).
TRUE (28th)

3) Halak will have a better save percentage than Miller
TRUE (Halak 0.914 and Miller 0.911)

4) Kadri will have more points than Bozak (but people will probably still think Bozak is better).
FALSE

5) Olli Jokinen will have more points than Schiefelle
FALSE (and not even close)

6) Letang will be top 5 in defensive scoring (points)
FALSE (but close, 7th)

7) Kessel will have more points and/or goals than P. Kane (but people will not consider Kessel at the same level as him)
FALSE (Kessel had a bad year)

8) Neither Sedin cracks 65 points.
FALSE (they both did)

9) Shattenkirk will have more points than Pietrangelo
FALSE (but he had 2 less points in 25 less games...)

10) JVR will out score Lucic in goals and points.
TRUE (fun fact Ericksson outscored Lucic)

4/10... Not so good.


On to 2015/2016 predictions

1) At least one of Boyes/PA Parenteau/Matthias (whose combined salary is less than Beleksey and all signed for one year) will out score Beleksey in pts and Gs.

2) Kessel will outscore Voracek and Tarasenko, but remember he had an untradeable contract and there new contracts are good contracts (in total points, only eligible if they all play over 70 GP)

3) Kessel will crack 50 G and/or 90 points.  At least one.

4) At least one of Cam Talbot or Lehner will have lower than a 0.910 save percentage and a losing record.

5) Kadri will crack 60 points (not eligible if he plays less than 70 GP)

6) Gardiner and Rielly will both crack 30 points (not eligible if he plays less than 70 GP)

7) Lack will have a better save % than Miller

8) Bonino will outscore Suter in both goals and points

9) Hornqvist will eclipse 25 goals and 65 points but no one will notice because everyone else on the team (obviously I can only prove the first part of this statement)

10) Datsyuk will play less than 65 GP, but in the games he plays he will end up in top 20 for PPG (for players with more than 30 GP)

11) BONUS AHL one- Nylander will have the highest AHL PPG of any player under 24 and with more than 30 GP

Enjoy the year! Go Leafs Go!

Trophy Predictions

My thoughts on potential trophy winners before the season.  I choose a winner, two guys who I also think have a good shot (labelled as runner ups) or who could be runner ups, and one "Dark Horse" candidate.

Hart trophy
Most likely- Crosby
Runner ups- Kopitar, Doughty
Dark Horse- Corey Schneider

Norris
Most Likely-Doughty
Runner ups-Keith, Pietrangelo
Dark Horse- Brodin (kidding he won't get the credit he deserves. Hedman)

Vezina
Most Likely- Rask
Runner ups- Lundqvist, Rinne
Dark Horse- Lehtonen

Selke
Most Likely-Datsyuk
Runner ups-Bergeron, Kopitar
Dark Horse- Couturier

Art Ross
Most LIkely-Crosby
Runner ups-Stamkos, Malkin
Dark Horse-Taylor Hall (is this a dark horse?  Not really, but people still act like he isn't that good, for some odd, odd reason).

Cheers

10 Random Predictions 2014-2015

1) Jonathan Quick is a good goalie, but an overrated one.  He will not be in the top 10 goaltenders by save percentage (for goaltenders with greater than 35 GP).

2) Thornton will be within the top 30 in points (but remember San Jose's failure to succeed in the playoffs is all his fault).

3) Halak will have a better save percentage than Miller

4) Kadri will have more points than Bozak (but people will probably still think Bozak is better).

5) Olli Jokinen will have more points than Schiefelle

6) Letang will be top 5 in defensive scoring (points)

7) Kessel will have more points and/or goals than P. Kane (but people will not consider Kessel at the same level as him)

8) Neither Sedin cracks 65 points.

9) Shattenkirk will have more points than Pietrangelo

10) JVR will out score Lucic in goals and points.


I don't have time to review last years right now, but I will do so later.

DROP THE PUCK

2014-2015 Predictions

Atlantic Division

1. Boston Bruins
2. Tamp Bay Lightning
3. Montreal Canadiens
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
   -----------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Detroit Red Wings
6. Ottawa Senators
7. Florida Panthers
8. Buffalo Sabres

Toronto making it is probably Homerism, but Datsyuk is old, Senators C depth is poor and Florida and Buffalo are pretty poor

Metropolitan Division

1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. New York Islanders*
3. New York Rangers*
4. Washington Capitals
   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Columbus Blue Jackets
6. New Jersey Devils
7. Philadelphia Flyers
8. Carolina Hurricaines

*I would have said Rangers over Islanders, but Stepan is out.

Columbus played well last year and Johansen is an emerging superstar.  That being said I find there depth poor at both forward and D.

Central Division

1. Chicago Blackhawks
2. St. Louis Blues
3. Dallas Stars
4. Minnesota Wild
5. Colorado Avalanche
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. Nashville Predators
7. Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division

1. LA Kings
2. San Jose Sharks
3. Anaheim Ducks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Vancouver Canucks
5. Phoenix Coyotes
6. Edmonton Oilers
7. Calgary Flames

5 from the Central, 3 from the Pacific.

2013-2014 Regular Season Predictions

My regular season predictions:

Atlantic Division

1. Boston Bruins
2. Ottawa Senators
3. Detroit Red Wings
4. Toronto Maple Leafs*
   -----------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Montreal Canadiens*
6. Tampa Bay Lightning
7. Florida Panthers
8. Buffalo Sabres

*I actually kind of think the Habs will be better than the Leafs, but it is close enough that my homerism has me picking the Leafs over the Habs

Metropolitan Division

1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Washington Capitals
3. New York Rangers
4. New York Islanders
   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Philadelphia Flyers
6. New Jersey Devils
7. Carolina Hurricaines
8. Columbus Blue Jackets

Central Division

1. Chicago Blackhawks
2. St. Louis Blues
3. Minnesota Wild
4. Dallas Stars
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Colorado Avalanche
6. Nashville Predators
7. Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division

1. LA Kings
2. San Jose Sharks
3. Vancouver Canucks
4. Edmonton Oilers
   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Anaheim Ducks
6. Phoenix Coyotes
7. Calgary Flames

One day left.  Lets drop the puck.

BCapp's Recap of 2013 Predictions

Two years ago I got 3/10 for predictions.  Ouch.  Lets see how I did last season:

Eberle will not be top 10 scoring, but he will be top 30 (ie 11-30th)

Eberle was 41st.  Couldn't even make the top 30.  Should have just predicted him falling back to earth. WRONG

Ovechkin will outscore both Sedins

Ovechkin 56 points, D Sedin 40, H Sedin 45. RIGHT

Vokoun will be within 0.003 of Fleury in save percentage

Vokoun had a 0.919 to Fleury's 0.916.  Not only were these within the predicted range, but Vokoun's was better. RIGHT

Nash will score less goals and/or points than Kessel (at least 1 of the two)

Kessel's 52 points were way more than Nash's 42 points.  However his 20 goals were one less than Nash's 21.  Fortunately I said he would be better in at least 1. RIGHT

Edmonton will not break the top 10 in the West

Edmonton was 12th.  Guess it wasn't their year. RIGHT

Calgary will be the worst Canadian team by points

Mtl 63, Van 59, Tor 57, Ott 56, Wpg 51, Edm 45, Clg 42.  Hehe and Calgary only got worse. RIGHT

Duchenne will outscore Landeskog (by points)

Duchene's (excuse the typo from last year) 43 points were way more than Landeskog's 17.  However Landeskog got injured you may say.  Duchene's 0.91 PPG was also way better than Landeskog's 0.47 PPG.  I like Landeskog a fair bit, but the stud of the two is Duchene. RIGHT

John Tavares will outscore Seguin in points and goals

Tavares 28 G and 47 points were both higher than Seguin's 16 G and 32 points.  RIGHT

One of Toronto's goalies will have a better save percentage than Pavelec

Pavelec continued his career of mediocre at best hockey putting up a 0.905.  Both Leafs goaltenders were better with 0.924 and 0.915.  Have fun with him Winnipeg. RIGHT

Smith will not be top 12 in save percentage for goalies playing greater to or equal 25 GP

Smith was 18th with a 0.910.  RIGHT

So this past season I did great going 9/10 and my only incorrect prediction was by not going bold enough. 

Lets make 'em up for this year

1. Grabovski will outscore Bozak in at least one of points or goals (likely both).  To protect this stat from injury screwing it up if one or both player plays less than 70 GP we'll look at GPG and PPG
2. Both Bernier and Reimer will put up at least okay numbers with save percentages above 0.912
3. Couturier will outscore Schenn in points and/or goals (at least one).
4. Gaborik will outscore Nash in points and/or goals (at least one).
5. Jets fans will continue to like Pavelec even though he is mediocre at best.  But for a real prediction, he will be outside the top 20 in save percentage for goalies in the top 40 by GP
6. Dubnyk will be in the top 20 in save percentage for goalies in the top 40 by GP, but people will be blaming him for any of Edmonton's woes.
7. The Jets will not make the playoffs.
8. Enroth (similar to Dubnyk) will quietly put up at least a league average save percentage (0,912), but everyone will be convinced Buffalo is screwed if/when Miller is moved.
9. Semin will outscore Perry by points and/or goals (at least one).
10. Both Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly will outscore Landeskog in points this year.

Note for #'s 6 and 8 the prediction is just the save percentage...

Drop the puck!

Predictions 2013. Around the league

Nazem Kadri from SBNation database of pictures

Last year I posted 10 predictions for around the league:

1. Nazem Kadri will score at a higher points per game than Brayden Schenn.
2. Bobrovski will be within 0.005 of Bryzgalov in save percentage.
3. Daniel Alfredsson will not crack 55 points.
4. The Flyers will have less points than they did last year.
5. Marc Andre Fleury will have a lower than the median save percentage for a starter (as defined by goalies who play more than 30 GP).
6. Varlamov will be top 15 in save percentage.
7. Cole will play less games than Connolly.
8. Ovechkin will crack 100 points again and win the Hart.
9. Iginla will not crack 35 goals nor 75 points.
10. Tampa Bay will pick up 2 players making 3 million+ during the season.

 Lets see how I did:

1. NK= 0.33 vs BS = 0.33... They Tied.  Wrong
2. Bryz=0.909, Bob=0.899... Wrong (though Bryz did worse than everyone predicted)
3. Alfredsson= 59 points... Wrong
4. 2010/2011= 106 pts vs 2011/2012= 103 pts.  Right
5. Median save percentage for goalie with >30 GP = 0.915, Fleury's = 0.913. Right
6. (Same list as last) Varlamov was 26th... Wrong
7. Connolly= 70 GP vs Cole = 82 GP... Wrong
8. Ovechkin=65 points... Wrong
9. Iginla= 32 goals and 67 points... Right
10. This one simply didn't happen.... Wrong

3/10.... Terrible.

Read on to see if I can do any better this year....

NHL's back! 2013 Predicted Regular Season Standings (too bad I can't write 2012/2013)

From @DregerFace.  Dreger Face is one of the few good things to come

out of this lockout.... If this doesn't show how boring the lockout was I don't

know what will.  BRING ON THE HOCKEY

The season is back and I am excited so I thought I would write a quick predictions post.  I LA to be in the SCF last year, but otherwise I wasn't awesome... Anyway here we go! (Last year's: Western Conference

and Eastern Conference)

(Note this is based on rosters as they are right now (as they were over the lockout), with no trades and the assumption that most (if not all) unsigned RFA's are signed).

Time to Drink Some Kule-Ade

OOOOH YEAH! from familyguy.wikia.com

Today we finally got some Leafs news: Nikolai Kulemin was resigned to a two year $2.8 million/year deal.  This was effectively his last RFA deal and takes him to UFA at the conclusion.  From reading PPP comments on today's FTB it seems that most people are content with the deal.  It wasn't a "homerun" as one commenter put it, but it wasn't a bad deal either.

Kulemin was slated to go to team-elected arbitration soon and this deal stopped that process.  Many NHL fans will recognize that this is quite a common occurrence.  Nobody likes going to arbitration and teams and players often reach a deal beforehand.  In fact there were 7 other forwards headed to arbitration this summer who have come to an agreement with their team.  I have decided to compare Kulemin to them.  Follow me over the jump for the comparison.

Jonathan Bernier: Is His AHL Success Meaningful

Some guy likes putting players on NHL 11 covers

 So here is Bernier!  From http://theheadcrusher.picturepush.com

Last night Andi Petrillo of HNIC tweeted that the Leafs had made an offer for LA Kings goaltender Jonathan Bernier.  This led many Leafs fans at PPP upset and had them ranting about why he was a terrible goaltender.  To be as clear as possible, I do NOT think trading for Bernier is a good idea for the Leafs.  That being said, I think he is a lot better than a lot were giving him credit for.

People were arguing about his ES vs total save percentage, the value of his draft position, his position stuck behind Quick, his junior (CHL and WJC) production, etc.  But for this post I want to specifically look at his production in the AHL.  So follow along after the jump if that interests you.

7 Thoughts on Free Agency Thus Far

Image by draglikepull

When you follow a team that seems to hate the playoffs, you start to look particularly forward to certain times of the year: the trade deadline, the NHL Entry Draft, and of course the opening of NHL free agency.  A fair bit has happened around the league over the last 2 days so I thought I would provide my opinion on some of the activity.  In no particular order, here are 7 thoughts on Free Agency thus far:

The Best of the 1989 NHL Entry Draft

Image from wikipedia.  What a terrible logo for the event which took place at the

Minnesota North stars arena.

The biggest news in the NHL this week is the retirement of the 'classy superstar' Nicklas Lidstrom (oh and a couple of teams are trying to win some silver bowl or something....).  This morning I was reading Down Goes Brown's latest post about Lidstrom's career and it was as funny as ever.  While laughing along to the post one of the jokes got me curious, who were the 52 players selected before Lidstrom?  A quick check told me which draft it was (click here for a list of players selected in the 1989 NHL entry draft (as it is from Hockey Reference it can be sorted by various statistics)) and I have thus written this short post about who I think the top 7 players were (in order) from the 1989 NHL entry draft.

Warning: Leafs fans may not be too happy...

Kadri Versus his Draft Class

I haven't posted here in a while (read roughly half a year).  Between a busy life and the Leafs seasons falling off a cliff I guess I just haven't gotten around to it.  Well I am back and I am going to try to dispel a myth.  The myth?

"Kadri is a bust"

Haven't you heard?  He can't even stay in the NHL!  Look how little he has produced!  He was drafted so long ago!

Are these reasonable statements?  Not really and if you follow me after the jump, I will show you why...

Playoff Predictions

With the playoffs starting tonight, I've been scrambling for the last few days to make my picks and get rosters sent in for various pools as I'm sure all of you have. While creating my playoff bracket, I got curious about what percentage of series go to 4, 5, 6 or 7 games. A few minutes in excel had it figured out, so follow after the jump for series length since the start of the current playoff format, plus playoff brackets from me, Bcapp, and JPNikota.

Shot Differential Chart for Leafs vs Wings 1/7/12

Hey guys, back again with some more BW Charts for you. Been experimenting with ways to get the goal lines on the charts, and I think I've figured out a way to do it. With that out of the way, here are the shots and shot differential charts for Leafs vs. Wings, 1/7/12. 

As you may remember, this was a game that the Leafs didn't really deserve to win. The team got out to a good start, building up a 3 goal lead in the process. After that, Detroit was mostly driving the play and keeping us in our own zone. To our credit, we did a good job keeping shots to the outside and Gus put in a solid performance. After Lupul scored to put us ahead with 12:50 to play, score effects are very noticeable, with Detroit putting a flurry of shots on the Leafs net in the last 10 min.

Shot Differential Chart for Leafs vs. Jets 1/5/12

Hello fellow Leafs fans. Been trying to think of an idea to get started with writing about the Leafs and hockey in general for a while, and I figured what better way that to shamelessly borrow an idea from the stat wizards over at Arctic Ice Hockey. I've been reading their stuff since before the Jets moved to the 'Peg and always liked how in depth they get with their stats while still making them understandable to us normal folk. When I first saw what Bettmans Nightmare has been calling a BW Chart, I thought it was a great way to visualize the flow of the game.

Those those of you that may not read AIH and have not seen the charts I'm referring to, here is an example of their chart for Leafs vs. Jets, 1/5/12 (disregard the error in the chart title). I decided to use this as a measuring stick for my own chart, which of course would have Leafs on top and Jets on the bottom, where they belong. The chart done by Arctic Ice Hockey also shows Leaf goals as black vertical lines, Jets PK as red shading, and Jets PP as green shading (this is something that I'm working on getting into my own charts, so any Excel ninjas out there can leave a tip in the comments if they know how).