Wednesday 16 May 2012

Kadri Versus his Draft Class

I haven't posted here in a while (read roughly half a year).  Between a busy life and the Leafs seasons falling off a cliff I guess I just haven't gotten around to it.  Well I am back and I am going to try to dispel a myth.  The myth?

"Kadri is a bust"

Haven't you heard?  He can't even stay in the NHL!  Look how little he has produced!  He was drafted so long ago!

Are these reasonable statements?  Not really and if you follow me after the jump, I will show you why...

Do judge Kadri I have looked at all of the players in the first round of his (2009) draft.  In other words, I am going to use the wild and crazy idea of comparing Kadri with his peers.

First off, lets address "He can't even stay in the NHL".  How do his GP look relative to his peers?

First Round of 2009 NHL Entry Draft (GP)

Black line is average GP of all forwards (n=18).  74 GP
Red line is average GP of forwards drafted #5-30 (n=15).  43 GP

The black line is the average number of GP for first round forwards (74 GP) (note while I showed all players here I only averaged the forwards.  There were 18 forwards).  So if we look at this, Kadri is behind the curve with his 51 GP.  But frankly I don't think this makes much sense.  Why?  Well if you look at this chart I think you will see a pretty apparent pattern (a pattern that is in many drafts): this draft had a top 4 and then everyone else.  All of the top 4 have over 200 GP (no one else does).  In fact only 6 players of the 26 players picked #5 and on are above the average (only 3 of the 15 forwards taken after #4).  I thus put in a second average: the average of forwards drafted #5-30 (there are 15).  This average (depicted by the red line is 43 GP.  Thus Kadri is ahead of the average for forwards drafted after #1-4.

What does this tell us?  That he is right where he should be for development.  Of the 15 forwards taken after the top 4 he ranks 6th in GP.  So he hasn't established himself as a regular NHLer yet, but frankly no one should have expected him to.

Lets see how he has produced:

First Round of 2009 NHL Entry Draft (GPG and PPG)
Thick black line is average PPG of all forwards (n=18). 0.290 PPG
Thin black line is average GPG of all forwards (n=18). 0.137 GPG
Thick red line is average PPG of forwards drafted #5-#30 (n=15). 0.197 PPG
Thin red line is average GPG of forwards drafted #5-#30 (n=15). 0.095 GPG

So what do we see here?  Kadri has produced quite, quite well.  His GPG (0.157) and PPG (0.373) are ahead of the average of all forwards in the draft (thus it is also ahead of the average of those forwards drafted #5-#30).  While a 0.317 PPG does not sound very good it actually is pretty damn good compared to his peers.  Of the 15 forwards taken #5-30, Kadri ranks second behind only Marcus Johansson (0.490).  In fact only 3 other forwards have PPG's above 0.300 (Schenn, MPS, and Caron).  His GPG also does him pretty well.  Of the 15 forwards taken #5-30, Kadri ranks 5th (one of the players ahead of him, Peter Holland has 1 goal in 4 games, to have a 0.250 GPG).

So what does this say?  It says that he has produced absolutely fine thus far.  Compared to his peers he comes out ahead in both GPG and PPG.

To bring it all together this draft had 4 clear top picks and they have produced as such.  When looking at the rest of the draft, Kadri comes out pretty well.  He has played more games than the average, and has produced way better.  The only forward who was taken 5th or later that has produced better is Marcus Johansson.  Every other forward has either produced a similar amount (Palmieri, Caron, and Schenn), or is behind him (ie Glennie (taken right after), Kassian, Leblanc, Josefson, and Ashton).

So unless you are upset Burke wasn't psychic and took Johansson 17 picks before he went, you need to recognize that Kadri is developing fine.


  1. Finallyyyy... I've been ripping on Hockey's future for being anti-leaf by not including Kadri in their top-50 "prospects" while Dougie hamilton sits at like #4.

  2. They'd like him to be above average I'm sure, as the average seventh overall pick isn't exactly a world beater. At this point, I think Kadri projects to a 45-point guy at the NHL level.

  3. Thanks a lot for chiming in James it is awesome to have a real reporter reading my stuff. While I am sure the Leafs would like Kadri to be above average (I would to), I don't think it is fair to be upset that he isn't (or at least not significantly so).

    I hope to see Kadri turn into a 50 point feisty player who can play wing or C.

  4. "You need to recognize that Kadri is developing fine"...

    Within his draft class, which means absolutely nothing. This same article could have been written in 2002, about the 1999 draft class and how the Capitals have nothing to worry about with their seventh pick, Kris Beech, because he's on the same development path as other forwards in the class.