Friday 20 July 2012

Time to Drink Some Kule-Ade


Today we finally got some Leafs news: Nikolai Kulemin was resigned to a two year $2.8 million/year deal.  This was effectively his last RFA deal and takes him to UFA at the conclusion.  From reading PPP comments on today's FTB it seems that most people are content with the deal.  It wasn't a "homerun" as one commenter put it, but it wasn't a bad deal either.

Kulemin was slated to go to team-elected arbitration soon and this deal stopped that process.  Many NHL fans will recognize that this is quite a common occurrence.  Nobody likes going to arbitration and teams and players often reach a deal beforehand.  In fact there were 7 other forwards headed to arbitration this summer who have come to an agreement with their team.  I have decided to compare Kulemin to them.  Follow me over the jump for the comparison.

First off the players:

Name Team Old Cap Hit New Term New Cap Hit Ending
David Perron St. Louis $2,500,000.00 4 $3,812,500.00 UFA (2 years bought)
Jamie McGinn Colorado $680,000.00 2 $1,750,000.00 RFA
Mason Raymond Vancouver $2,600,000.00 1 $2,275,000.00 UFA (no years bought)
Nick Bonino Anaheim $693,000.00 2 $700,000.00 RFA
Nikolai Kulemin Toronto $2,200,000.00 2 $2,800,000.00 UFA (no years bought)
Sam Gagner Edmonton $2,275,000.00 1 $3,200,000.00 RFA
T.J. Galiardi San Jose $700,000.00 1 $950,000.00 RFA
T.J. Oshie St. Louis $2,350,000.00 5 $4,175,000.00 UFA (4 years bought)

Now there production over the last 2 years:

Name GP GPG PPG Notes
David Perron 67 0.388 0.731 Was almost killed by Thornton 2 years ago. Recovered well last year
Jamie McGinn 127 0.165 0.339 Had 8 goals and 13 points in 17 GP with Colorado after the trade deadline
Mason Raymond 125 0.200 0.472 Cutdown arbitration
Nick Bonino 76 0.066 0.237 Has looked good in the AHL thus far. Establishing himself in the NHL
Nikolai Kulemin 152 0.243 0.559
Sam Gagner 143 0.231 0.622
T.J. Galiardi 69 0.130 0.217
T.J. Oshie 129 0.233 0.674

Finally a comparison of their production over that time period versus their new cap hits:

Name Cap Hit Rank GPG Rank PPG Rank
T.J. Oshie 1st 3rd 2nd
David Perron 2nd 1st 1st
Sam Gagner 3rd 4th 3rd
Nikolai Kulemin 4th 2nd 4th
Mason Raymond 5th 5th 5th
Jamie McGinn 6th 6th 6th
T.J. Galiardi 7th 7th 8th
Nick Bonino 8th 8th 7th

It looks to me like Kulemin is fairly paid relative to this small group of peers (if anything we actually got a pretty good deal).  He has the 4th highest cap hit while having the 4th highest PPG and 2nd highest GPG.  We probably got him for that slight (ever so slight) discount, because it brought him right to UFA.  Oshie's contract on the other hand, was probably a little elevated for buying a bunch of his UFA years.  Perron's contract was probably a little limited because of his recent major concussion.

Obviously this isn't a perfect methodology as every player isn't in the exact same point in their development (probably held back McGinn and Bonino), Raymond's situation was very unique, and Kulemin is hard to judge in general because of his two polar opposite years.

Anyway this was my quick analysis and it appears to me that Kulemin's deal was fair.


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