Monday, 30 September 2013

2013-2014 Regular Season Predictions

My regular season predictions:

Atlantic Division

  1. Boston Bruins
  2. Ottawa Senators
  3. Detroit Red Wings
  4. Toronto Maple Leafs*
  5. Montreal Canadiens*
  6. Tampa Bay Lightning
  7. Florida Panthers
  8. Buffalo Sabres

*I actually kind of think the Habs will be better than the Leafs, but it is close enough that my homerism has me picking the Leafs over the Habs

Metropolitan Division

  1. Pittsburgh Penguins
  2. Washington Capitals
  3. New York Rangers
  4. New York Islanders
  5. Philadelphia Flyers
  6. New Jersey Devils
  7. Carolina Hurricaines
  8. Columbus Blue Jackets

Central Division

  1. Chicago Blackhawks
  2. St. Louis Blues
  3. Minnesota Wild
  4. Dallas Stars
  5. Colorado Avalanche
  6. Nashville Predators
  7. Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division

  1. LA Kings
  2. San Jose Sharks
  3. Vancouver Canucks
  4. Edmonton Oilers
  5. Anaheim Ducks
  6. Phoenix Coyotes
  7. Calgary Flames
One day left.  Lets drop the puck.

Wednesday, 11 September 2013

BCapp's Recap of 2013 Predictions

Two years ago I got 3/10 for predictions.  Ouch.  Lets see how I did last season:

  • Eberle will not be top 10 scoring, but he will be top 30 (ie 11-30th)
  • Eberle was 41st.  Couldn't even make the top 30.  Should have just predicted him falling back to earth. WRONG
  • Ovechkin will outscore both Sedins
  • Ovechkin 56 points, D Sedin 40, H Sedin 45. RIGHT
  • Vokoun will be within 0.003 of Fleury in save percentage
  • Vokoun had a 0.919 to Fleury's 0.916.  Not only were these within the predicted range, but Vokoun's was better. RIGHT
  • Nash will score less goals and/or points than Kessel (at least 1 of the two)
  • Kessel's 52 points were way more than Nash's 42 points.  However his 20 goals were one less than Nash's 21.  Fortunately I said he would be better in at least 1. RIGHT
  • Edmonton will not break the top 10 in the West
  • Edmonton was 12th.  Guess it wasn't their year. RIGHT
  • Calgary will be the worst Canadian team by points
  • Mtl 63, Van 59, Tor 57, Ott 56, Wpg 51, Edm 45, Clg 42.  Hehe and Calgary only got worse. RIGHT
  • Duchenne will outscore Landeskog (by points)
  • Duchene's (excuse the typo from last year) 43 points were way more than Landeskog's 17.  However Landeskog got injured you may say.  Duchene's 0.91 PPG was also way better than Landeskog's 0.47 PPG.  I like Landeskog a fair bit, but the stud of the two is Duchene. RIGHT
  • John Tavares will outscore Seguin in points and goals
  • Tavares 28 G and 47 points were both higher than Seguin's 16 G and 32 points.  RIGHT
  • One of Toronto's goalies will have a better save percentage than Pavelec
  • Pavelec continued his career of mediocre at best hockey putting up a 0.905.  Both Leafs goaltenders were better with 0.924 and 0.915.  Have fun with him Winnipeg. RIGHT
  • Smith will not be top 12 in save percentage for goalies playing greater to or equal 25 GP
  • Smith was 18th with a 0.910.  RIGHT

  • So this past season I did great going 9/10 and my only incorrect prediction was by not going bold enough. 

    Lets make 'em up for this year

    1. Grabovski will outscore Bozak in at least one of points or goals (likely both).  To protect this stat from injury screwing it up if one or both player plays less than 70 GP we'll look at GPG and PPG
    2. Both Bernier and Reimer will put up at least okay numbers with save percentages above 0.912
    3. Couturier will outscore Schenn in points and/or goals (at least one).
    4. Gaborik will outscore Nash in points and/or goals (at least one).
    5. Jets fans will continue to like Pavelec even though he is mediocre at best.  But for a real prediction, he will be outside the top 20 in save percentage for goalies in the top 40 by GP
    6. Dubnyk will be in the top 20 in save percentage for goalies in the top 40 by GP, but people will be blaming him for any of Edmonton's woes.
    7. The Jets will not make the playoffs.
    8. Enroth (similar to Dubnyk) will quietly put up at least a league average save percentage (0,912), but everyone will be convinced Buffalo is screwed if/when Miller is moved.
    9. Semin will outscore Perry by points and/or goals (at least one).
    10. Both Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly will outscore Landeskog in points this year.
    Note for #'s 6 and 8 the prediction is just the save percentage...

    Drop the puck!

    Saturday, 19 January 2013

    Predictions 2013. Around the league

    Nazem Kadri from SBNation database of pictures

    1. Nazem Kadri will score at a higher points per game than Brayden Schenn.
    2. Bobrovski will be within 0.005 of Bryzgalov in save percentage.
    3. Daniel Alfredsson will not crack 55 points.
    4. The Flyers will have less points than they did last year.
    5. Marc Andre Fleury will have a lower than the median save percentage for a starter (as defined by goalies who play more than 30 GP).
    6. Varlamov will be top 15 in save percentage.
    7. Cole will play less games than Connolly.
    8. Ovechkin will crack 100 points again and win the Hart.
    9. Iginla will not crack 35 goals nor 75 points.
    10. Tampa Bay will pick up 2 players making 3 million+ during the season.
     Lets see how I did:

    1. NK= 0.33 vs BS = 0.33... They Tied.  Wrong
    2. Bryz=0.909, Bob=0.899... Wrong (though Bryz did worse than everyone predicted)
    3. Alfredsson= 59 points... Wrong
    4. 2010/2011= 106 pts vs 2011/2012= 103 pts.  Right
    5. Median save percentage for goalie with >30 GP = 0.915, Fleury's = 0.913. Right
    6. (Same list as last) Varlamov was 26th... Wrong
    7. Connolly= 70 GP vs Cole = 82 GP... Wrong
    8. Ovechkin=65 points... Wrong
    9. Iginla= 32 goals and 67 points... Right
    10. This one simply didn't happen.... Wrong
    3/10.... Terrible.

    Read on to see if I can do any better this year....

    Sunday, 6 January 2013

    NHL's back! 2013 Predicted Regular Season Standings (too bad I can't write 2012/2013)

    From @DregerFace.  Dreger Face is one of the few good things to come
    out of this lockout.... If this doesn't show how boring the lockout was I don't
    know what will.  BRING ON THE HOCKEY

    The season is back and I am excited so I thought I would write a quick predictions post.  I LA to be in the SCF last year, but otherwise I wasn't awesome... Anyway here we go! (Last year's: Western Conference

    (Note this is based on rosters as they are right now (as they were over the lockout), with no trades and the assumption that most (if not all) unsigned RFA's are signed).

    Friday, 20 July 2012

    Time to Drink Some Kule-Ade

    OOOOH YEAH! from

    Today we finally got some Leafs news: Nikolai Kulemin was resigned to a two year $2.8 million/year deal.  This was effectively his last RFA deal and takes him to UFA at the conclusion.  From reading PPP comments on today's FTB it seems that most people are content with the deal.  It wasn't a "homerun" as one commenter put it, but it wasn't a bad deal either.

    Kulemin was slated to go to team-elected arbitration soon and this deal stopped that process.  Many NHL fans will recognize that this is quite a common occurrence.  Nobody likes going to arbitration and teams and players often reach a deal beforehand.  In fact there were 7 other forwards headed to arbitration this summer who have come to an agreement with their team.  I have decided to compare Kulemin to them.  Follow me over the jump for the comparison.

    Tuesday, 17 July 2012

    Jonathan Bernier: Is His AHL Success Meaningful

    Some guy likes putting players on NHL 11 covers
     So here is Bernier!  From

    Last night Andi Petrillo of HNIC tweeted that the Leafs had made an offer for LA Kings goaltender Jonathan Bernier.  This led many Leafs fans at PPP upset and had them ranting about why he was a terrible goaltender.  To be as clear as possible, I do NOT think trading for Bernier is a good idea for the Leafs.  That being said, I think he is a lot better than a lot were giving him credit for.

    People were arguing about his ES vs total save percentage, the value of his draft position, his position stuck behind Quick, his junior (CHL and WJC) production, etc.  But for this post I want to specifically look at his production in the AHL.  So follow along after the jump if that interests you.

    Tuesday, 3 July 2012

    7 Thoughts on Free Agency Thus Far

    Image by draglikepull

    When you follow a team that seems to hate the playoffs, you start to look particularly forward to certain times of the year: the trade deadline, the NHL Entry Draft, and of course the opening of NHL free agency.  A fair bit has happened around the league over the last 2 days so I thought I would provide my opinion on some of the activity.  In no particular order, here are 7 thoughts on Free Agency thus far: